Crewe 0-3 Walsall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Crewe at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crewe vs Walsall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crewe host Walsall at Alexandra Stadium in League Two (matchday 37). Kick-off is Saturday 14 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Crewe — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Crewe's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Walsall stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Walsall have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Crewe are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Crewe have won 1, Walsall 3, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 26 Dec 2025, ended Crewe 0–1 Walsall — a Walsall win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Crewe trading profile (last 82 games, 41 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Walsall trading profile (last 82 games, 41 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 51% versus Walsall 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crewe 40% | Walsall 46%). Note also that Walsall surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Crewe recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 1.36 xG and Walsall 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 1.119 / defence 0.956 | Walsall attack 1.022 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.196. Data: built from Crewe's last 82 games and Walsall's last 82.
Result probabilities: Crewe 41% | Draw 27% | Walsall 32%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 2.43 | Draw 3.75 | Walsall 3.11. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Crewe as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crewe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Crewe 70% (last 10 home games) | Walsall 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crewe vs Walsall | Competition: League Two, matchday 37 | Venue: Alexandra Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crewe 41% | Draw 27% | Walsall 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Crewe 1.36 / Walsall 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Crewe attack 1.119 / def 0.956 | Walsall attack 1.022 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Crewe (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Crewe xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Walsall xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Crewe vs Walsall FAQs
What time does Crewe vs Walsall kick off?
Crewe vs Walsall kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Alexandra Stadium.
What was the final score in Crewe vs Walsall?
Crewe 0 - 3 Walsall.
Where is Crewe vs Walsall being played?
The match is being played at Alexandra Stadium.
What competition is Crewe vs Walsall part of?
Crewe vs Walsall is a League Two fixture (matchday 37) (England).
Who is favourite to win Crewe vs Walsall?
Our statistical model gives Crewe a 41% chance of winning, Walsall a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Crewe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs Walsall?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Crewe and Walsall will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Crewe vs Walsall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Crewe's attack rating (1.12) and Walsall's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Walsall's attack versus Crewe's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Crewe's last 82 games and Walsall's last 82 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crewe Win
41%
2.43
27%
3.75
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Crewe xG
Total xG
2.53
1.17
Walsall xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
13%
7.83
8%
12.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.7 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Crewe vs Walsall Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Crewe vs Walsall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Crewe and Walsall expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Crewe and 1.17 for Walsall, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Crewe vs Walsall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Crewe's recent record stands at 31W 25D 26L from 82 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Walsall, meanwhile, have gone 36W 22D 24L across 82 games — 1.59 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crewe on 1.44 PPG, Walsall on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Crewe have managed 19W 10D 12L from their last 41 home games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Walsall's away record stands at 17W 13D 11L across their last 41 away games, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Crewe are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Walsall are on 1.43 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 82 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crewe
Current Season
Walsall
Current Season
Crewe (Home) vs Walsall (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Crewe
Current Season
Walsall
Current Season
❓ Crewe vs Walsall Form FAQs
What form are Crewe and Walsall in coming into this match?
Crewe have gone 31W 25D 26L in their last 82 games (1.44 PPG), while Walsall have gone 36W 22D 24L in their last 82 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crewe at home or Walsall away?
Crewe's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crewe at home: 1.63 PPG; Walsall away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from February 2023. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was as recently as 1 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Mar 2026, when Walsall won Crewe 0-3 Walsall.
Crewe's record when hosting Walsall specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Crewe
4
Draws
4
Walsall
Recent Meetings
❓ Crewe vs Walsall H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Walsall?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Crewe have won 1, Walsall have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Crewe and Walsall last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 September 2026: Crewe 2-2 Walsall.
Who has won more matches between Crewe and Walsall?
Walsall have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Walsall see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crewe 49%, Walsall 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Crewe) and 37% (Walsall).
On the defensive side: Walsall in 34%; Crewe have failed to score in 27% of games; Walsall in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crewe home games / Walsall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Crewe vs Walsall Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Crewe and Walsall matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Crewe's recent matches and 42% of Walsall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Crewe and Walsall matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Crewe's recent games and 37% of Walsall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crewe and Walsall matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Crewe's recent matches and 58% of Walsall's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Walsall run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Crewe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Walsall beat Crewe 0-3 at Alexandra Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.36 xG and Walsall 1.17 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Crewe fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Walsall outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 1.12 / defence 0.96 against Walsall attack 1.02 / defence 0.98, drawn from 82/82 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crewe 41% | Draw 27% | Walsall 32%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Walsall win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 40%, Walsall 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crewe's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Walsall's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crewe 1.44 PPG, Walsall 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Walsall win broke the near-deadlock. Crewe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Walsall (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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