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Crewe cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Shrewsbury.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crewe beat Shrewsbury 3-1 at Alexandra Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.78 xG and Shrewsbury 1.11 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Crewe beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 0.96 / defence 1.10 against Shrewsbury attack 0.86 / defence 1.37, drawn from 60/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crewe 53% | Draw 23% | Shrewsbury 23%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 37%, Shrewsbury 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crewe's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Shrewsbury's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Crewe arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.77. That form edge translated into the three points. Crewe (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights