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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Crewe defy the odds to beat Notts County 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crewe beat Notts County 2-1 at Alexandra Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.07 xG and Notts County 1.27 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Crewe beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 0.89 / defence 1.10 against Notts County attack 1.00 / defence 0.98, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crewe 31% | Draw 28% | Notts County 41%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Crewe win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 33%, Notts County 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crewe's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Notts County's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crewe 1.36 PPG, Notts County 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crewe win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights