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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Crewe and Newport County share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crewe and Newport County finished level at 2-2 at Alexandra Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.76 xG and Newport County 1.21 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 1.13 / defence 1.16 against Newport County attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crewe 50% | Draw 24% | Newport County 26%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 39%, Newport County 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crewe's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Newport County's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Crewe arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Newport County (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights