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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Crewe cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Grimsby.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crewe beat Grimsby 2-0 at Mornflake Stadium, Regular Season - 40, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.18 xG and Grimsby 1.61 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Crewe beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Grimsby landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 0.95 / defence 1.18 against Grimsby attack 1.28 / defence 0.99, drawn from 85/85 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crewe 28% | Draw 25% | Grimsby 47%, with Grimsby to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Crewe win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 41%, Grimsby 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crewe's trading profile (85 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Grimsby's trading profile (85 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crewe 1.49 PPG, Grimsby 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crewe win broke the near-deadlock. Crewe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line. Grimsby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights