Crewe 2-0 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gillingham at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crewe vs Gillingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mornflake Stadium plays host to Crewe versus Gillingham in League Two, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 5 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Crewe have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Crewe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Crewe have posted 3W 2D 5L at Mornflake Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Mornflake Stadium this season.
Gillingham's overall League Two record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Gillingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gillingham have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Crewe against 2.00 for Gillingham. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Crewe have seen both teams score in just 10% of their matches, Gillingham in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Crewe lead 2W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 6 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Crewe — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Gillingham — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 47% versus Gillingham 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crewe 49% | Gillingham 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 0.89 xG and Gillingham 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 0.891 / defence 1.032 | Gillingham attack 0.769 / defence 0.726. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.219. Gillingham's defence strength of 0.726 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 54 Crewe games / 55 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crewe 32% | Draw 32% | Gillingham 36%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Gillingham 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gillingham at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gillingham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.86 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Crewe 10% | Gillingham 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crewe vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Mornflake Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crewe 32% | Draw 32% | Gillingham 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Crewe 0.89 / Gillingham 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Crewe attack 0.891 / def 1.032 | Gillingham attack 0.769 / def 0.726 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Gillingham (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Crewe xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Gillingham xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crewe vs Gillingham kick off?
Crewe vs Gillingham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Mornflake Stadium.
What was the final score in Crewe vs Gillingham?
Crewe 2 - 0 Gillingham.
Where is Crewe vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at Mornflake Stadium.
What competition is Crewe vs Gillingham part of?
Crewe vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crewe vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Crewe a 32% chance of winning, Gillingham a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Gillingham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Crewe and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Crewe vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Gillingham?
Record (6 meetings): Crewe 2W | Draws 2 | Gillingham 2W.
What form are Crewe and Gillingham in?
Crewe (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Gillingham (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Crewe vs Gillingham?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Crewe's attack at 0.89x the league average against Gillingham's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gillingham's attack (0.77x) against Crewe's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 54/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gillingham Win
32%
3.13
32%
3.11
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Crewe xG
Total xG
1.86
0.97
Gillingham xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
12%
8.24
15%
6.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 15.0 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crewe vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Crewe and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Crewe and 0.97 for Gillingham, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Crewe vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 55 outings, Crewe have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 24W 13D 18L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Crewe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gillingham's form line: 24W 11D 20L from 55 games, 1.51 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L. The sample for Gillingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Crewe against 1.51 for Gillingham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Crewe have posted 1.63 PPG from 27 outings (13W 5D 9L).
On the road, Gillingham have gone 11W 2D 14L from 27 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crewe are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 1.05 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Gillingham in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crewe
Blended
Gillingham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crewe and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Crewe have gone 24W 13D 18L in their last 55 games (1.55 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 24W 11D 20L in their last 55 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crewe at home or Gillingham away?
Crewe's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crewe at home: 1.63 PPG; Gillingham away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Crewe or Gillingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crewe have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Gillingham in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crewe have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gillingham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Crewe
3
Draws
3
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Gillingham?
From 10 meetings on record, Crewe have won 4, Gillingham have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Crewe and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Crewe 1-0 Gillingham.
Who has won more matches between Crewe and Gillingham?
Crewe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crewe 41%, Gillingham 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Crewe) and 33% (Gillingham).
On the defensive side: Crewe keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Gillingham in 37%; Crewe have failed to score in 30% of games; Gillingham in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crewe home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crewe play Gillingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Crewe's recent matches and 33% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crewe vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Crewe's recent games and 33% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crewe and Gillingham tend to score early?
Crewe have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Gillingham in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crewe cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Gillingham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crewe beat Gillingham 2-0 at Mornflake Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 0.89 xG and Gillingham 0.97 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Crewe beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gillingham landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 0.89 / defence 1.03 against Gillingham attack 0.77 / defence 0.73, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crewe 32% | Draw 32% | Gillingham 36%, with Gillingham to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Crewe win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 49%, Gillingham 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crewe's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gillingham's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crewe 1.55 PPG, Gillingham 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crewe win broke the near-deadlock. Crewe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Gillingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.