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Dominant Fleetwood Town run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Crewe.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fleetwood Town beat Crewe 1-4 at Mornflake Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.72 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.08 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Fleetwood Town outscored their 1.08 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 1.11 / defence 1.05 against Fleetwood Town attack 0.96 / defence 1.22, drawn from 80/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crewe 52% | Draw 24% | Fleetwood Town 24%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Fleetwood Town win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 42%, Fleetwood Town 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crewe's trading profile (80 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Fleetwood Town's trading profile (80 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Crewe arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Fleetwood Town winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Crewe (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights