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Prediction vindicated as Crewe edge out Crawley Town 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crewe beat Crawley Town 1-0 at Alexandra Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.80 xG and Crawley Town 0.73 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 1.05 / defence 0.94 against Crawley Town attack 0.72 / defence 1.34, drawn from 48/2 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Crewe 62% | Draw 24% | Crawley Town 14%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 31%, Crawley Town 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crewe's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Crawley Town's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Crewe arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. Crewe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights