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Dominant Crewe run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Cheltenham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crewe beat Cheltenham 4-1 at Alexandra Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.77 xG and Cheltenham 1.34 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Crewe beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 1.08 / defence 1.21 against Cheltenham attack 0.91 / defence 1.25, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crewe 47% | Draw 24% | Cheltenham 29%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 39%, Cheltenham 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crewe's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Cheltenham's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crewe 1.36 PPG, Cheltenham 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crewe win broke the near-deadlock. Crewe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm. Cheltenham (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights