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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Crewe edge out Carlisle 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crewe beat Carlisle 3-2 at Mornflake Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.31 xG and Carlisle 0.68 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Crewe beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Carlisle outscored their 0.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 0.94 / defence 0.82 against Carlisle attack 0.71 / defence 1.05, drawn from 68/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crewe 51% | Draw 31% | Carlisle 18%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 41%, Carlisle 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crewe's trading profile (68 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Carlisle's trading profile (68 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Crewe arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.71. Form held, and they took the win. Crewe (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm. Carlisle (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights