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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Crewe run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Barrow.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crewe beat Barrow 3-0 at Mornflake Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.44 xG and Barrow 0.83 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Crewe beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Barrow landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 1.00 / defence 1.10 against Barrow attack 0.70 / defence 1.10, drawn from 78/77 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crewe 51% | Draw 28% | Barrow 21%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 40%, Barrow 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crewe's trading profile (77 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Barrow's trading profile (77 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crewe 1.52 PPG, Barrow 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crewe win broke the near-deadlock. Crewe (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Barrow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights