Crawley Town 2-2 Swindon Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Swindon Town at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Swindon Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crawley Town host Swindon Town at The Broadfield Stadium in League Two (matchday 36). Kick-off is Saturday 7 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Crawley Town — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters, Crawley Town have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Swindon Town stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Swindon Town's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Swindon Town — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Crawley Town's games and 60% of Swindon Town's (from Crawley Town's last 10 home games and Swindon Town's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Crawley Town have won 3, Swindon Town 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.1 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 Dec 2025, ended Crawley Town 0–1 Swindon Town — a Swindon Town win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (last 81 games, 40 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Swindon Town in-play and half-time data (last 81 games, 40 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 51% versus Swindon Town 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 53% | Swindon Town 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Crawley Town surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while Swindon Town have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 42% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.14 xG and Swindon Town 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.890 / defence 1.218 | Swindon Town attack 1.126 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.150. Crawley Town's defence rating of 1.218 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Swindon Town's projected output up. Data: built from Crawley Town's last 35 games and Swindon Town's last 81.
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 28% | Draw 25% | Swindon Town 47%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 3.63 | Draw 4.00 | Swindon Town 2.11. Swindon Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Swindon Town at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Swindon Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Crawley Town 70% (last 10 home games) | Swindon Town 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Swindon Town | Competition: League Two, matchday 36 | Venue: The Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 28% | Draw 25% | Swindon Town 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Crawley Town 1.14 / Swindon Town 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.890 / def 1.218 | Swindon Town attack 1.126 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.237 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Swindon Town (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Swindon Town xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Crawley Town vs Swindon Town FAQs
What time does Crawley Town vs Swindon Town kick off?
Crawley Town vs Swindon Town kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 7 March 2026 at The Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Swindon Town?
Crawley Town 2 - 2 Swindon Town.
Where is Crawley Town vs Swindon Town being played?
The match is being played at The Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Swindon Town part of?
Crawley Town vs Swindon Town is a League Two fixture (matchday 36) (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Swindon Town?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 28% chance of winning, Swindon Town a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Swindon Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Swindon Town?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Crawley Town and Swindon Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Crawley Town vs Swindon Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Crawley Town's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Swindon Town's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Swindon Town's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Crawley Town's last 35 games and Swindon Town's last 81 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swindon Town Win
28%
3.63
25%
4.00
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.72
1.58
Swindon Town xG
3.63
28%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
6%
17.58
15%
6.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.4 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Crawley Town vs Swindon Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Swindon Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Swindon Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.58 for Swindon Town, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Swindon Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 81 outings, Crawley Town have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 18W 20D 43L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Swindon Town's form line: 34W 22D 25L from 81 games, 1.53 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Swindon Town are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Crawley Town.
Venue Form
On home soil, Crawley Town have posted 1.12 PPG from their last 40 home games (11W 12D 17L).
On the road, Swindon Town have gone 15W 10D 15L from their last 40 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Crawley Town are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Swindon Town are on 1.58 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 81 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Current Season
Swindon Town
Current Season
Crawley Town (Home) vs Swindon Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Crawley Town
Current Season
Swindon Town
Current Season
❓ Crawley Town vs Swindon Town Form FAQs
What form are Crawley Town and Swindon Town in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 18W 20D 43L in their last 81 games (0.91 PPG), while Swindon Town have gone 34W 22D 25L in their last 81 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Swindon Town away?
Swindon Town's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.12 PPG; Swindon Town away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Aug 2023, when Swindon Town won Swindon Town 6-0 Crawley Town.
Crawley Town's record when hosting Swindon Town specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Crawley Town
2
Draws
3
Swindon Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Crawley Town vs Swindon Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Swindon Town?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Crawley Town have won 3, Swindon Town have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Swindon Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: Crawley Town 2-2 Swindon Town.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Swindon Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 60%, Swindon Town 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Crawley Town) and 58% (Swindon Town).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Swindon Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Crawley Town vs Swindon Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Crawley Town and Swindon Town matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Crawley Town's games and 60% of Swindon Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Crawley Town and Swindon Town matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Crawley Town's recent games and 58% of Swindon Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Swindon Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 80% of Swindon Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crawley Town and Swindon Town share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town and Swindon Town finished level at 2-2 at The Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.14 xG and Swindon Town 1.58 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Crawley Town beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.89 / defence 1.22 against Swindon Town attack 1.13 / defence 1.03, drawn from 35/81 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 28% | Draw 25% | Swindon Town 47%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 53%, Swindon Town 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Swindon Town's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Swindon Town arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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