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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Crawley Town and Swindon Town share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crawley Town and Swindon Town finished level at 2-2 at The Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.14 xG and Swindon Town 1.58 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Crawley Town beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.89 / defence 1.22 against Swindon Town attack 1.13 / defence 1.03, drawn from 35/81 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 28% | Draw 25% | Swindon Town 47%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 53%, Swindon Town 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crawley Town's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Swindon Town's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Swindon Town arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights