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Stalemate at Crawley Town's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at The Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 44, as Crawley Town and Shrewsbury drew 0-0 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.41 xG and Shrewsbury 1.16 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Crawley Town fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Shrewsbury landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.89 / defence 1.16 against Shrewsbury attack 0.84 / defence 1.26, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 43% | Draw 26% | Shrewsbury 31%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 51%, Shrewsbury 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crawley Town's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Shrewsbury's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crawley Town 0.93 PPG, Shrewsbury 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights