Crawley Town 0-0 Salford City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Salford City at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Salford City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Salford City make the trip to The Broadfield Stadium to face Crawley Town in League Two (matchday 46). The match kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Crawley Town (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Crawley Town's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Salford City have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Salford City's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 0D 5L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Salford City are 1.10 PPG clear of Crawley Town over their recent games (2.20 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Salford City edge it 3 wins to 2, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.6 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 29 Nov 2025, ended Crawley Town 3–4 Salford City — a Salford City win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Crawley Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 91 games, 45 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Salford City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 91 games, 45 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 50% versus Salford City 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 50% | Salford City 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 0.96 xG and Salford City 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.786 / defence 1.072 | Salford City attack 0.973 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.207. Crawley Town's attack rating of 0.786 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. Data: built from Crawley Town's last 45 games and Salford City's last 91.
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 28% | Draw 29% | Salford City 43%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 3.56 | Draw 3.50 | Salford City 2.31. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Salford City are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Salford City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Crawley Town 40% (last 10 home games) | Salford City 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, matchday 46 | Venue: The Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 28% | Draw 29% | Salford City 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Crawley Town 0.96 / Salford City 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.786 / def 1.072 | Salford City attack 0.973 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Salford City (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Salford City xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Crawley Town vs Salford City FAQs
What time does Crawley Town vs Salford City kick off?
Crawley Town vs Salford City kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 2 May 2026 at The Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Salford City?
Crawley Town 0 - 0 Salford City.
Where is Crawley Town vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at The Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Salford City part of?
Crawley Town vs Salford City is a League Two fixture (matchday 46) (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 28% chance of winning, Salford City a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Crawley Town and Salford City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Crawley Town vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Crawley Town's attack rating (0.79) and Salford City's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Salford City's attack (0.97x) against Crawley Town's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from Crawley Town's last 45 games and Salford City's last 91 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
28%
3.56
29%
3.50
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.21
1.26
Salford City xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
8%
12.52
17%
6.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 13.7 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Crawley Town vs Salford City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.26 for Salford City, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 91 outings, Crawley Town have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 20W 25D 46L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Salford City's form line: 43W 20D 28L from 91 games, 1.64 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Salford City are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Crawley Town.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Crawley Town have posted 1.13 PPG from their last 45 home games (12W 15D 18L).
On the road, Salford City have gone 19W 11D 15L from their last 45 away games — 1.51 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crawley Town are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.37 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 91 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Current Season
Salford City
Current Season
Crawley Town (Home) vs Salford City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Crawley Town
Current Season
Salford City
Current Season
❓ Crawley Town vs Salford City Form FAQs
What form are Crawley Town and Salford City in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 20W 25D 46L in their last 91 games (0.93 PPG), while Salford City have gone 43W 20D 28L in their last 91 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Salford City away?
Salford City's away record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.13 PPG; Salford City away: 1.51 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crawley Town have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Salford City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Crawley Town
3
Draws
4
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Crawley Town vs Salford City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Salford City?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Crawley Town have won 2, Salford City have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Salford City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Salford City 2-1 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Salford City?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 58%, Salford City 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Crawley Town) and 47% (Salford City).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Crawley Town vs Salford City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Crawley Town and Salford City matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Crawley Town's games and 58% of Salford City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Crawley Town and Salford City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Crawley Town's recent games and 47% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Salford City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 67% of Salford City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Crawley Town's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 46, as Crawley Town and Salford City drew 0-0 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 0.96 xG and Salford City 1.26 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Crawley Town fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Salford City landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.79 / defence 1.07 against Salford City attack 0.97 / defence 0.94, drawn from 45/91 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 28% | Draw 29% | Salford City 43%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 50%, Salford City 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Salford City's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Salford City arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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