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Stalemate at Crawley Town's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at The Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 46, as Crawley Town and Salford City drew 0-0 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 0.96 xG and Salford City 1.26 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Crawley Town fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Salford City landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.79 / defence 1.07 against Salford City attack 0.97 / defence 0.94, drawn from 45/91 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 28% | Draw 29% | Salford City 43%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 50%, Salford City 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crawley Town's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Salford City's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Salford City arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights