Crawley Town 0-1 Salford City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Crawley Town at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Salford City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Salford City make the trip to Broadfield Stadium to face Crawley Town in League Two, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 January 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Crawley Town (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town's home record at Broadfield Stadium: 6W 0D 4L from 10 League Two appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Salford City have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Salford City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salford City's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Crawley Town. A 1.20 PPG lead over Salford City (1.50 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Crawley Town, 1 for Salford City and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Crawley Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Salford City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 57% versus Salford City 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 56% | Salford City 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.90 xG and Salford City 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.155 / defence 1.131 | Salford City attack 0.914 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.548 / away 1.315. Data: 72 Crawley Town games / 72 Salford City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 50% | Draw 23% | Salford City 27%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Salford City 3.70. Crawley Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crawley Town are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crawley Town if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 80% | Salford City 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jan 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 50% | Draw 23% | Salford City 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Crawley Town 1.90 / Salford City 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.155 / def 1.131 | Salford City attack 0.914 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.548 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Salford City xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Salford City kick off?
Crawley Town vs Salford City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Salford City?
Crawley Town 0 - 1 Salford City.
Where is Crawley Town vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Salford City part of?
Crawley Town vs Salford City is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 50% chance of winning, Salford City a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Crawley Town and Salford City will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Salford City?
Record (5 meetings): Crawley Town 2W | Draws 2 | Salford City 1W.
What form are Crawley Town and Salford City in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Salford City (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Crawley Town's attack rating (1.16) and Salford City's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Salford City's attack (0.91x) against Crawley Town's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
50%
2.00
23%
4.41
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
3.25
1.36
Salford City xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
15%
6.66
Win to Nil
13%
7.80
4%
24.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.36 for Salford City, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Crawley Town have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 23W 16D 33L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Salford City's form line: 28W 14D 30L from 72 games, 1.36 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Salford City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Crawley Town against 1.36 for Salford City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Crawley Town have posted 1.61 PPG from 36 outings (17W 7D 12L). That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Crawley Town are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Salford City have gone 16W 5D 15L from 36 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crawley Town are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.47 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 72 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Salford City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Salford City in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 23W 16D 33L in their last 72 games (1.18 PPG), while Salford City have gone 28W 14D 30L in their last 72 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Salford City away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.61 PPG; Salford City away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crawley Town have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Salford City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Crawley Town
3
Draws
3
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Salford City?
From 8 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 2, Salford City have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Salford City last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Crawley Town 0-0 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Salford City?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 61%, Salford City 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Crawley Town) and 58% (Salford City). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Salford City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Crawley Town's games and 58% of Salford City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crawley Town vs Salford City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Crawley Town's matches and 58% of Salford City's.
Do Crawley Town and Salford City tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Salford City in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Salford City defy the odds to beat Crawley Town 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City beat Crawley Town 0-1 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.90 xG and Salford City 1.36 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Crawley Town fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.16 / defence 1.13 against Salford City attack 0.91 / defence 1.06, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 50% | Draw 23% | Salford City 27%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Salford City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 56%, Salford City 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Salford City's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.18 PPG, Salford City 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward. Salford City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.