Accrington ST 1-2 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Accrington ST at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Accrington ST vs Gillingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Gillingham travel to Wham Stadium to take on Accrington ST. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 January 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Accrington ST stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Accrington ST at Wham Stadium this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Accrington ST are significantly better at Wham Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League Two games this season, Gillingham have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Gillingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gillingham have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Accrington ST) versus 1.30 (Gillingham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Accrington ST, 2 for Gillingham and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with Gillingham winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Accrington ST in-play tendencies (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Gillingham in-play tendencies (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 46% versus Gillingham 31%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Accrington ST 51% | Gillingham 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.29 xG and Gillingham 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 0.976 / defence 0.947 | Gillingham attack 0.657 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.548 / away 1.315. Data: 26 Accrington ST games / 71 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 47% | Draw 29% | Gillingham 24%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Gillingham 4.17. Accrington ST hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Accrington ST are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Accrington ST offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Accrington ST 50% | Gillingham 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jan 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 47% | Draw 29% | Gillingham 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Accrington ST 1.29 / Gillingham 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 0.976 / def 0.947 | Gillingham attack 0.657 / def 0.852 | league avg home 1.548 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Gillingham xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Gillingham kick off?
Accrington ST vs Gillingham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Gillingham?
Accrington ST 1 - 2 Gillingham.
Where is Accrington ST vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Gillingham part of?
Accrington ST vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 47% chance of winning, Gillingham a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Accrington ST and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Gillingham?
Record (3 meetings): Accrington ST 0W | Draws 1 | Gillingham 2W.
What form are Accrington ST and Gillingham in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Gillingham (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Accrington ST's attack at 0.98x the league average against Gillingham's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gillingham's attack versus Accrington ST's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
47%
2.11
29%
3.43
24%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
2.10
0.82
Gillingham xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.26
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
6%
15.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 10.0 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.8 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Accrington ST and 0.82 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Accrington ST come into this having played 71 games, going 22W 15D 34L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-W. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gillingham sit at 1.31 PPG from 71 outings (26W 15D 30L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Gillingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Accrington ST on 1.14 PPG, Gillingham on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Accrington ST's home form reads 14W 5D 16L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.34 PPG return.
Away from home, Gillingham have taken 0.94 points per game from 35 outings (8W 9D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Accrington ST come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Accrington ST are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 0.80 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Gillingham in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Blended
Gillingham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 22W 15D 34L in their last 71 games (1.14 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 26W 15D 30L in their last 71 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Gillingham away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.34 PPG; Gillingham away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Accrington ST or Gillingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Accrington ST have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Gillingham in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Accrington ST's record when hosting Gillingham specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Accrington ST
3
Draws
4
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Gillingham?
From 8 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 1, Gillingham have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Gillingham 2-0 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Gillingham?
Gillingham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 46%, Gillingham 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Accrington ST) and 26% (Gillingham).
On the defensive side: Gillingham in 37%; Accrington ST have failed to score in 31% of games; Gillingham in 49%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Gillingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 29% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Accrington ST vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Accrington ST's recent games and 26% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Gillingham tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Gillingham in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gillingham defy the odds to beat Accrington ST 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gillingham beat Accrington ST 1-2 at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.29 xG and Gillingham 0.82 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Gillingham outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.98 / defence 0.95 against Gillingham attack 0.66 / defence 0.85, drawn from 26/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 47% | Draw 29% | Gillingham 24%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Gillingham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 51%, Gillingham 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Gillingham's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.14 PPG, Gillingham 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gillingham win broke the near-deadlock. Gillingham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.66 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.