Crawley Town vs Rochdale – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Crawley Town at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Rochdale encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Rochdale travel to The Broadfield Stadium to take on Crawley Town. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 March 2027, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Crawley Town have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Crawley Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at The Broadfield Stadium, Crawley Town have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rochdale stand at 2W 1D 4L from 7 League Two matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.43 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Rochdale have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Rochdale have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away fixtures this term (0.33 PPG). Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Crawley Town) versus 1.00 (Rochdale). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Crawley Town: 4 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for Rochdale, with 1 draws across those contests.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 2–1 with Crawley Town winning.
The historical record gives Crawley Town a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Rochdale in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 57% versus Rochdale 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 43% | Rochdale 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.03 xG and Rochdale 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.694 / defence 1.279 | Rochdale attack 0.579 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.008. Crawley Town's attack strength of 0.694 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 Crawley Town games / 7 Rochdale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 39% | Draw 38% | Rochdale 23%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.56 | Draw 2.63 | Rochdale 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crawley Town at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 38% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.78 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 40% | Rochdale 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Rochdale | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: The Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 39% | Draw 38% | Rochdale 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 36% | xG Crawley Town 1.03 / Rochdale 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.694 / def 1.279 | Rochdale attack 0.579 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Rochdale xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Rochdale kick off?
Crawley Town vs Rochdale is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at The Broadfield Stadium.
Where is Crawley Town vs Rochdale being played?
The match is being played at The Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Rochdale part of?
Crawley Town vs Rochdale is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Rochdale?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 39% chance of winning, Rochdale a 23% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Rochdale?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Crawley Town and Rochdale will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Rochdale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Rochdale?
Record (5 meetings): Crawley Town 4W | Draws 1 | Rochdale 0W.
What form are Crawley Town and Rochdale in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Rochdale (all comps): 2W-1D-4L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.43 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 0.69x the league average against Rochdale's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rochdale's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.7%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
39%
2.56
38%
2.66
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
1.78
0.75
Rochdale xG
2.56
39%
Home win
2.66
38%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
8%
12.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.9 | 12.6 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Rochdale?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Rochdale expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Crawley Town and 0.75 for Rochdale, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Rochdale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Crawley Town's recent record stands at 1W 1D 5L from 7 games, a 0.57 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Crawley Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rochdale, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 4L across 7 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Rochdale, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rochdale by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Crawley Town heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Crawley Town have managed 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — 0.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.57 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Rochdale's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rochdale's season.
The Goals Picture
Crawley Town are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Rochdale are on 1.00 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rochdale in 29%.
Defensively: Rochdale in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Early Season
Rochdale
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Rochdale in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 1W 1D 5L in their last 7 games (0.57 PPG), while Rochdale have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Rochdale away?
Rochdale's away record (0.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 0.00 PPG; Rochdale away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Crawley Town or Rochdale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crawley Town have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Rochdale in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crawley Town and Rochdale runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Crawley Town have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Crawley Town's record when hosting Rochdale specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Crawley Town
1
Draws
0
Rochdale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Rochdale?
From 5 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 4, Rochdale have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Rochdale last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Rochdale 1-2 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Rochdale?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Rochdale see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Crawley Town 33% BTTS, Rochdale 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Crawley Town and 33% for Rochdale.
On the defensive side: Rochdale in 33%; Crawley Town have failed to score in 67% of games; Rochdale in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Rochdale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Rochdale?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 0% of Rochdale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Rochdale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Crawley Town's recent games and 33% of Rochdale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Rochdale tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Rochdale in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.