Crawley Town vs Rochdale Prediction & Preview

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Poisson rates Crawley Town at 37% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Rochdale encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Rochdale travel to The Broadfield Stadium to take on Crawley Town in League Two (matchday 35). The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 March 2027 at 15:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Crawley Town have gone 1W 3D 6L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Crawley Town have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Rochdale stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Rochdale have gone 1W 2D 4L in their last 7 away fixtures (0.71 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form points away from home here. Rochdale's 1.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Crawley Town's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Crawley Town: 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Rochdale, with 1 draw.

Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 22 Aug 2026, ended Crawley Town 2–1 Rochdale — a Crawley Town win.

The head-to-head data gives Crawley Town an edge — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading Patterns

Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (last 14 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Rochdale in-play and half-time data (last 14 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 64% versus Rochdale 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 50% | Rochdale 64%). Note also that Rochdale surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Crawley Town recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.52 xG and Rochdale 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.812 / defence 1.346 | Rochdale attack 0.972 / defence 1.291. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.143. Rochdale's defence rating of 1.291 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Crawley Town's projected output up. Crawley Town's defence rating of 1.346 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Rochdale's projected output up. Data: built from Crawley Town's last 58 games and Rochdale's last 14.

Result probabilities: Crawley Town 37% | Draw 27% | Rochdale 36%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.72 | Draw 3.66 | Rochdale 2.79. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.52 / 1.50) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record in our data (4 wins to 0), yet Rochdale are the in-form side right now — head-to-head edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

The Poisson model's primary lean is Crawley Town at 37% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Crawley Town 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Note a divergence: in-form Rochdale (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Crawley Town 40% (last 10 home games) | Rochdale 57% (last 7 away games).

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