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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Crawley Town and Oldham share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crawley Town and Oldham finished level at 2-2 at The Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.10 xG and Oldham 0.86 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Crawley Town beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Oldham outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.98 / defence 1.00 against Oldham attack 0.70 / defence 0.82, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 41% | Draw 31% | Oldham 28%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 58%, Oldham 26%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crawley Town's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Oldham's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crawley Town 0.89 PPG, Oldham 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Crawley Town (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Oldham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights