🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Oldham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Oldham travel to The Broadfield Stadium to take on Crawley Town. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 December 2025, 15:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Crawley Town — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Crawley Town at The Broadfield Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Crawley Town are significantly better at The Broadfield Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Oldham stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Oldham, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Oldham away from home this season: 3W 3D 3L from 9 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 9 games (56%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Crawley Town at 0.90 PPG versus Oldham's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Crawley Town have won 0, Oldham 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 3–3 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Oldham in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 58% versus Oldham 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 58% | Oldham 26%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.10 xG and Oldham 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.981 / defence 0.997 | Oldham attack 0.698 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.237. Data: 19 Crawley Town games / 19 Oldham games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Crawley Town 41% | Draw 31% | Oldham 28%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Oldham 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Crawley Town at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 60% | Oldham 22% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights