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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Notts County edge out Crawley Town 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Notts County beat Crawley Town 1-2 at The Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.15 xG and Notts County 1.35 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.03 / defence 1.17 against Notts County attack 0.95 / defence 0.88, drawn from 25/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 31% | Draw 27% | Notts County 41%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 58%, Notts County 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crawley Town's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Notts County's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Notts County arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.92. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights