Crawley Town 2-3 Northampton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Northampton at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Northampton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crawley Town host Northampton at Broadfield Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 16 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crawley Town stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Crawley Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Crawley Town's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Broadfield Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Crawley Town are significantly better at Broadfield Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League Two games this season, Northampton have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Northampton have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in League Two this season, Northampton have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Northampton are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Crawley Town have won 1, Northampton 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2022, ended 1–0 with Crawley Town winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Crawley Town trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Northampton trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 59% versus Northampton 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 53% | Northampton 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.03 xG and Northampton 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.852 / defence 1.032 | Northampton attack 1.121 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 0.927. Data: 49 Crawley Town games / 49 Northampton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 34% | Draw 30% | Northampton 36%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Northampton 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Northampton are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Northampton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Crawley Town 40% | Northampton 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Northampton | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 34% | Draw 30% | Northampton 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Crawley Town 1.03 / Northampton 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.852 / def 1.032 | Northampton attack 1.121 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.316 / away 0.927 • Poisson stance: Northampton (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Northampton xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Northampton kick off?
Crawley Town vs Northampton kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 16 August 2022 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Northampton?
Crawley Town 2 - 3 Northampton.
Where is Crawley Town vs Northampton being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Northampton part of?
Crawley Town vs Northampton is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Northampton?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 34% chance of winning, Northampton a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Northampton?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Crawley Town and Northampton will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Northampton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Northampton?
Record (2 meetings): Crawley Town 1W | Draws 1 | Northampton 0W.
What form are Crawley Town and Northampton in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Northampton (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Crawley Town's attack rating (0.85) and Northampton's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Northampton's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
34%
2.95
30%
3.34
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.10
1.07
Northampton xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
12%
8.62
13%
7.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Northampton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Northampton expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.07 for Northampton, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Northampton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Crawley Town come into this having played 49 games, going 17W 11D 21L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Crawley Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Northampton sit at 1.65 PPG from 49 outings (23W 12D 14L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Northampton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 1.27 PPG, Northampton on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Crawley Town's home form reads 9W 6D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Northampton have taken 1.42 points per game from 24 outings (9W 7D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Crawley Town are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Northampton are on 1.33 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Northampton in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Early Season
Northampton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Northampton in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 17W 11D 21L in their last 49 games (1.27 PPG), while Northampton have gone 23W 12D 14L in their last 49 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Northampton away?
Northampton's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.38 PPG; Northampton away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Crawley Town or Northampton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crawley Town have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Northampton in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2024, when Northampton won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Crawley Town's record when hosting Northampton specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Crawley Town
1
Draws
3
Northampton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Northampton?
From 6 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 2, Northampton have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Northampton last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Crawley Town 3-0 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Northampton?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Northampton see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 58%, Northampton 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Crawley Town) and 46% (Northampton).
On the defensive side: Northampton in 33%; Crawley Town have failed to score in 29% of games; Northampton in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Northampton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Northampton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Crawley Town's games and 54% of Northampton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crawley Town vs Northampton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Crawley Town's recent games and 46% of Northampton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Northampton tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Northampton in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Northampton edge out Crawley Town 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Northampton beat Crawley Town 2-3 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.03 xG and Northampton 1.07 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Crawley Town beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Northampton outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.85 / defence 1.03 against Northampton attack 1.12 / defence 0.92, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 34% | Draw 30% | Northampton 36%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 53%, Northampton 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Northampton's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.27 PPG, Northampton 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Northampton win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Northampton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.