Colchester 1-0 Bradford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Colchester at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Colchester vs Bradford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Colchester and Bradford meet at JobServe Community Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 16 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Colchester's overall League Two record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Colchester have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at JobServe Community Stadium, Colchester have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Bradford have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Bradford have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in League Two this season, Bradford have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Colchester against 1.50 for Bradford. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Colchester lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2022, ended 3–0 with Colchester winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Colchester half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Bradford half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colchester 49% versus Bradford 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colchester 43% | Bradford 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colchester 1.41 xG and Bradford 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colchester attack 0.954 / defence 1.071 | Bradford attack 1.164 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 0.927. Data: 49 Colchester games / 49 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Colchester 43% | Draw 26% | Bradford 31%. Fair-value odds: Colchester 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Bradford 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Colchester are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Colchester if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Colchester 50% | Bradford 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colchester vs Bradford | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: JobServe Community Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colchester 43% | Draw 26% | Bradford 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Colchester 1.41 / Bradford 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Colchester attack 0.954 / def 1.071 | Bradford attack 1.164 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.316 / away 0.927 • Poisson stance: Colchester (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Colchester xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Bradford xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colchester vs Bradford kick off?
Colchester vs Bradford kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 16 August 2022 at JobServe Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Colchester vs Bradford?
Colchester 1 - 0 Bradford.
Where is Colchester vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at JobServe Community Stadium.
What competition is Colchester vs Bradford part of?
Colchester vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Colchester vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Colchester a 43% chance of winning, Bradford a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Colchester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colchester vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Colchester and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Colchester vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and Bradford?
Record (2 meetings): Colchester 1W | Draws 1 | Bradford 0W.
What form are Colchester and Bradford in?
Colchester (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Bradford (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Colchester's attack rating (0.95) and Bradford's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bradford's attack (1.16x) against Colchester's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colchester Win
43%
2.34
26%
3.79
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Colchester xG
Total xG
2.56
1.16
Bradford xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
8%
13.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colchester vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Colchester and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Colchester and 1.16 for Bradford, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Colchester vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, Colchester have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 14W 14D 21L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Colchester, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bradford's form line: 15W 17D 17L from 49 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Bradford, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Colchester against 1.27 for Bradford. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Colchester have posted 1.17 PPG from 24 outings (6W 10D 8L).
On the road, Bradford have gone 8W 6D 10L from 24 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Colchester are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.16 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 49 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colchester
Early Season
Bradford
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Colchester and Bradford in coming into this match?
Colchester have gone 14W 14D 21L in their last 49 games (1.14 PPG), while Bradford have gone 15W 17D 17L in their last 49 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colchester at home or Bradford away?
Bradford's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colchester at home: 1.17 PPG; Bradford away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Colchester won 3-0 on 18 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Colchester have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bradford — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Colchester
3
Draws
3
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and Bradford?
From 8 meetings on record, Colchester have won 2, Bradford have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Colchester and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2025, when Bradford 4-1 Colchester.
Who has won more matches between Colchester and Bradford?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Colchester see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Bradford see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colchester 58%, Bradford 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Colchester) and 42% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: Bradford in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colchester home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Colchester play Bradford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Colchester's recent matches and 46% of Bradford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Colchester vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Colchester's recent games and 42% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Colchester edge out Bradford 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colchester beat Bradford 1-0 at JobServe Community Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 1.41 xG and Bradford 1.16 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bradford landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 0.95 / defence 1.07 against Bradford attack 1.16 / defence 1.12, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colchester 43% | Draw 26% | Bradford 31%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 43%, Bradford 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colchester's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Bradford's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Colchester 1.14 PPG, Bradford 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Colchester win broke the near-deadlock. Colchester (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Bradford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.