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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Newport County defy the odds to beat Crawley Town 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Newport County beat Crawley Town 1-2 at The Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.24 xG and Newport County 1.11 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Newport County outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Newport County attack 0.93 / defence 1.16, drawn from 1/47 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 38% | Draw 30% | Newport County 32%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Newport County win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 57%, Newport County 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crawley Town's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Newport County's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crawley Town 0.98 PPG, Newport County 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newport County win broke the near-deadlock. Newport County (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights