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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Crawley Town and Milton Keynes Dons share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crawley Town and Milton Keynes Dons finished level at 1-1 at The Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 0.98 xG and Milton Keynes Dons 1.43 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.83 / defence 1.26 against Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.04 / defence 0.91, drawn from 3/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 25% | Draw 29% | Milton Keynes Dons 46%, with Milton Keynes Dons to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 57%, Milton Keynes Dons 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crawley Town's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Milton Keynes Dons's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crawley Town 0.94 PPG, Milton Keynes Dons 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights