Crawley Town 1-3 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Mansfield Town (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Crawley Town face Mansfield Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Broadfield Stadium plays host to Crawley Town versus Mansfield Town in League Two, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 16 December 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Crawley Town have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town's home record at Broadfield Stadium: 7W 0D 3L from 10 League Two appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Crawley Town are significantly better at Broadfield Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Mansfield Town (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mansfield Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mansfield Town's form when playing away from home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Mansfield Town arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Crawley Town have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Mansfield Town in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Crawley Town, 3 for Mansfield Town and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2023, ended 1–4 with Mansfield Town winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Crawley Town — key trading statistics (65 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Mansfield Town — key trading statistics (65 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 57% versus Mansfield Town 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 55% | Mansfield Town 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.52 xG and Mansfield Town 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.158 / defence 1.053 | Mansfield Town attack 1.285 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.256. Mansfield Town have an above-average attack strength of 1.285 — the away xG of 1.70 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 66 Crawley Town games / 65 Mansfield Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 34% | Draw 24% | Mansfield Town 42%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | Mansfield Town 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mansfield Town as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mansfield Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 60% | Mansfield Town 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 34% | Draw 24% | Mansfield Town 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Crawley Town 1.52 / Mansfield Town 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.158 / def 1.053 | Mansfield Town attack 1.285 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Mansfield Town xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town?
Crawley Town 1 - 3 Mansfield Town.
Where is Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town part of?
Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 34% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Crawley Town and Mansfield Town will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Mansfield Town?
Record (4 meetings): Crawley Town 1W | Draws 0 | Mansfield Town 3W.
What form are Crawley Town and Mansfield Town in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Mansfield Town (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Crawley Town's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Mansfield Town's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — Mansfield Town's attack (1.28x) against Crawley Town's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from 66/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
34%
2.94
24%
4.10
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
3.22
1.70
Mansfield Town xG
2.94
34%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
18%
5.47
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
6%
16.06
9%
11.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.3 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.70 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Crawley Town come into this having played 65 games, going 20W 16D 29L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mansfield Town sit at 1.71 PPG from 65 outings (30W 21D 14L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Mansfield Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mansfield Town carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Crawley Town's home form reads 16W 7D 10L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Crawley Town are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Mansfield Town have taken 1.73 points per game from 33 outings (16W 9D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Crawley Town are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.63 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mansfield Town in 62%.
Last 65 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Mansfield Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 20W 16D 29L in their last 65 games (1.17 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 30W 21D 14L in their last 65 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Mansfield Town away?
Mansfield Town's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.67 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Crawley Town or Mansfield Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crawley Town have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Mansfield Town in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mansfield Town won 4-1 on 1 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crawley Town have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Mansfield Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Crawley Town
0
Draws
5
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Mansfield Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 3, Mansfield Town have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Mansfield Town last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2025, when Mansfield Town 0-1 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Mansfield Town?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 58%, Mansfield Town 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Crawley Town) and 54% (Mansfield Town).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Mansfield Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Crawley Town's games and 64% of Mansfield Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Crawley Town's recent games and 54% of Mansfield Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Mansfield Town tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Mansfield Town in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mansfield Town cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Crawley Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mansfield Town beat Crawley Town 1-3 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.52 xG and Mansfield Town 1.70 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Mansfield Town outscored their 1.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.16 / defence 1.05 against Mansfield Town attack 1.28 / defence 0.85, drawn from 66/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 34% | Draw 24% | Mansfield Town 42%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 55%, Mansfield Town 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (65 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (65 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Mansfield Town arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Crawley Town (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.