Stockport County 8-0 Sutton Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stockport County at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Sutton Utd encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stockport County host Sutton Utd at Edgeley Park in League Two, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 December 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stockport County — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stockport County's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Edgeley Park this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Edgeley Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all League Two games this season, Sutton Utd have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sutton Utd, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sutton Utd away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Stockport County have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Stockport County have won 2, Sutton Utd 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2023, ended 1–0 with Stockport County winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Stockport County in-play tendencies (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Sutton Utd in-play tendencies (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 48% versus Sutton Utd 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 41% | Sutton Utd 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 2.16 xG and Sutton Utd 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.062 / defence 0.684 | Sutton Utd attack 0.866 / defence 1.311. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.256. Sutton Utd bring a strong defensive rating of 1.311 — this is suppressing Stockport County's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Stockport County's defence rating of 0.684 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 67 Stockport County games / 66 Sutton Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 69% | Draw 19% | Sutton Utd 11%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.45 | Draw 5.26 | Sutton Utd 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (69%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Stockport County 30% | Sutton Utd 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Sutton Utd | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 69% | Draw 19% | Sutton Utd 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 47% | xG Stockport County 2.16 / Sutton Utd 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.062 / def 0.684 | Sutton Utd attack 0.866 / def 1.311 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Sutton Utd xG
47%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Sutton Utd kick off?
Stockport County vs Sutton Utd kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Sutton Utd?
Stockport County 8 - 0 Sutton Utd.
Where is Stockport County vs Sutton Utd being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Sutton Utd part of?
Stockport County vs Sutton Utd is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Sutton Utd?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 69% chance of winning, Sutton Utd a 11% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Sutton Utd?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Stockport County and Sutton Utd will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Sutton Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Sutton Utd?
Record (2 meetings): Stockport County 2W | Draws 0 | Sutton Utd 0W.
What form are Stockport County and Sutton Utd in?
Stockport County (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Sutton Utd (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stockport County's attack rating (1.06) and Sutton Utd's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 2.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sutton Utd's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 1-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
69%
1.44
19%
5.14
11%
9.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.91
0.74
Sutton Utd xG
1.44
69%
Home win
5.14
19%
Draw
9.07
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
12%
8.69
Win to Nil
33%
3.03
1%
78.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Sutton Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Sutton Utd expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Stockport County and 0.74 for Sutton Utd, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Sutton Utd?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 66 outings, Stockport County have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 35W 18D 13L record — W-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sutton Utd's form line: 18W 18D 30L from 66 games, 1.09 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-D. The sample for Sutton Utd is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Stockport County are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sutton Utd.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stockport County have posted 2.03 PPG from 32 outings (18W 11D 3L).
On the road, Sutton Utd have gone 4W 10D 18L from 32 away games — 0.69 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sutton Utd's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stockport County are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Sutton Utd are on 1.09 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Blended
Sutton Utd
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Sutton Utd in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 35W 18D 13L in their last 66 games (1.86 PPG), while Sutton Utd have gone 18W 18D 30L in their last 66 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Sutton Utd away?
Stockport County's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 2.03 PPG; Sutton Utd away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Sutton Utd been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Sutton Utd in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stockport County and Sutton Utd runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stockport County go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Dec 2023, when Stockport County won 8-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stockport County's record when hosting Sutton Utd specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Stockport County
0
Draws
0
Sutton Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Sutton Utd?
From 4 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 4, Sutton Utd have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Sutton Utd last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Sutton Utd 1-3 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Sutton Utd?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sutton Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 38%, Sutton Utd 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Stockport County) and 56% (Sutton Utd).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Sutton Utd in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Sutton Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Sutton Utd?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Stockport County's recent matches and 59% of Sutton Utd's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Sutton Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Stockport County's recent games and 56% of Sutton Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Sutton Utd tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Sutton Utd in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Stockport County run riot with a 8-0 hammering of Sutton Utd.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Sutton Utd 8-0 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 22, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 2.16 xG and Sutton Utd 0.74 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 8-0 for 8 actual goals. Stockport County beat their projection by 5.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.06 / defence 0.68 against Sutton Utd attack 0.87 / defence 1.31, drawn from 67/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 69% | Draw 19% | Sutton Utd 11%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 41%, Sutton Utd 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sutton Utd's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 8 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm. Sutton Utd (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 8 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.