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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Crawley Town cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Harrogate Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crawley Town beat Harrogate Town 2-0 at The Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.24 xG and Harrogate Town 1.06 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Harrogate Town landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.00 / defence 1.21 against Harrogate Town attack 0.72 / defence 0.97, drawn from 28/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 40% | Draw 28% | Harrogate Town 31%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 57%, Harrogate Town 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crawley Town's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Harrogate Town's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crawley Town 0.93 PPG, Harrogate Town 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights