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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Grimsby cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Crawley Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grimsby beat Crawley Town 0-2 at The Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 42, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.07 xG and Grimsby 1.19 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Crawley Town fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Grimsby outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.98 / defence 1.12 against Grimsby attack 0.92 / defence 0.90, drawn from 41/85 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 33% | Draw 29% | Grimsby 39%, with Grimsby to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 51%, Grimsby 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crawley Town's trading profile (85 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Grimsby's trading profile (85 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Grimsby arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.91. Form held, and they took the win. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward. Grimsby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights