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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Crawley Town cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Gillingham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crawley Town beat Gillingham 2-0 at The Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 40, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.30 xG and Gillingham 1.11 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Gillingham landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.95 / defence 1.18 against Gillingham attack 0.79 / defence 1.13, drawn from 39/84 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 41% | Draw 27% | Gillingham 32%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 51%, Gillingham 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crawley Town's trading profile (84 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Gillingham's trading profile (84 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crawley Town 0.88 PPG, Gillingham 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Gillingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights