Crawley Town 2-0 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Crawley Town face Gillingham.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crawley Town host Gillingham at The Broadfield Stadium in League Two (matchday 40). Kick-off is Saturday 28 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Crawley Town — last 10 games: 0W 5D 5L, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Crawley Town have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Gillingham have recorded 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Gillingham's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (Crawley Town) versus 0.70 (Gillingham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Crawley Town, 2 for Gillingham and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.6 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 15 Nov 2025, ended Crawley Town 2–2 Gillingham — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (last 84 games, 41 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Gillingham in-play and half-time data (last 84 games, 41 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 50% versus Gillingham 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 51% | Gillingham 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.30 xG and Gillingham 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.952 / defence 1.184 | Gillingham attack 0.785 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.192. Gillingham's attack rating of 0.785 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.11. Data: built from Crawley Town's last 39 games and Gillingham's last 84.
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 41% | Draw 27% | Gillingham 32%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.45 | Draw 3.64 | Gillingham 3.16. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crawley Town are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Crawley Town 70% (last 10 home games) | Gillingham 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, matchday 40 | Venue: The Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 41% | Draw 27% | Gillingham 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Crawley Town 1.30 / Gillingham 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.952 / def 1.184 | Gillingham attack 0.785 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.203 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Gillingham xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Crawley Town vs Gillingham FAQs
What time does Crawley Town vs Gillingham kick off?
Crawley Town vs Gillingham kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 28 March 2026 at The Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Gillingham?
Crawley Town 2 - 0 Gillingham.
Where is Crawley Town vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at The Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Gillingham part of?
Crawley Town vs Gillingham is a League Two fixture (matchday 40) (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 41% chance of winning, Gillingham a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Crawley Town and Gillingham will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Crawley Town vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Crawley Town's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Gillingham's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Gillingham's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Crawley Town's last 39 games and Gillingham's last 84 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
41%
2.45
27%
3.64
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.41
1.11
Gillingham xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
13%
7.42
9%
11.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Crawley Town vs Gillingham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.11 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 84 outings, Crawley Town have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 17W 23D 44L record — L-D-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Gillingham's form line: 25W 28D 31L from 84 games, 1.23 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 0.88 PPG, Gillingham on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Crawley Town have posted 1.07 PPG from their last 41 home games (10W 14D 17L).
On the road, Gillingham have gone 9W 16D 16L from their last 41 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Crawley Town are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 1.01 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 84 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Current Season
Gillingham
Current Season
Crawley Town (Home) vs Gillingham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Crawley Town
Current Season
Gillingham
Current Season
❓ Crawley Town vs Gillingham Form FAQs
What form are Crawley Town and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 17W 23D 44L in their last 84 games (0.88 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 25W 28D 31L in their last 84 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Gillingham away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.07 PPG; Gillingham away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2022. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 28 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Crawley Town's record when hosting Gillingham specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Crawley Town
2
Draws
2
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Crawley Town vs Gillingham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Gillingham?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Crawley Town have won 2, Gillingham have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Gillingham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 March 2026: Crawley Town 2-0 Gillingham.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Gillingham see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 61%, Gillingham 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Crawley Town) and 29% (Gillingham).
On the defensive side: Gillingham in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Crawley Town vs Gillingham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Crawley Town and Gillingham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 46% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Crawley Town and Gillingham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Crawley Town's recent games and 29% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Gillingham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 54% of Gillingham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crawley Town cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Gillingham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Gillingham 2-0 at The Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 40, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.30 xG and Gillingham 1.11 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Gillingham landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.95 / defence 1.18 against Gillingham attack 0.79 / defence 1.13, drawn from 39/84 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 41% | Draw 27% | Gillingham 32%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 51%, Gillingham 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (84 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Gillingham's trading profile (84 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 0.88 PPG, Gillingham 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Gillingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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