Crawley Town 2-2 Crewe – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Crewe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Crewe travel to Broadfield Stadium to take on Crawley Town. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 February 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Crawley Town have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town's home record at Broadfield Stadium: 6W 1D 3L from 10 League Two appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Crawley Town are significantly better at Broadfield Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crewe stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Crewe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Crewe have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Crawley Town 1.10 PPG, Crewe 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Crawley Town, 1 for Crewe and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 0–1 with Crewe winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Crawley Town in-play tendencies (72 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Crewe in-play tendencies (72 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 61% versus Crewe 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 56% | Crewe 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.44 xG and Crewe 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.094 / defence 1.160 | Crewe attack 0.679 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.213 / away 1.048. Data: 72 Crawley Town games / 27 Crewe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 52% | Draw 27% | Crewe 22%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Crewe 4.55. Crawley Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Crawley Town as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 60% | Crewe 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Crewe | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 52% | Draw 27% | Crewe 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG Crawley Town 1.44 / Crewe 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.094 / def 1.160 | Crewe attack 0.679 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.213 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Crewe xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Crewe kick off?
Crawley Town vs Crewe kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Crewe?
Crawley Town 2 - 2 Crewe.
Where is Crawley Town vs Crewe being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Crewe part of?
Crawley Town vs Crewe is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Crewe?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 52% chance of winning, Crewe a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Crewe?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Crawley Town and Crewe will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Crewe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Crewe?
Record (1 meetings): Crawley Town 0W | Draws 0 | Crewe 1W.
What form are Crawley Town and Crewe in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Crewe (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 1.09x the league average against Crewe's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Crewe's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
52%
1.94
27%
3.72
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.27
0.83
Crewe xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
5%
19.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.3 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Crewe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Crewe expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Crawley Town and 0.83 for Crewe, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Crewe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Crawley Town come into this having played 72 games, going 23W 17D 32L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Crewe sit at 0.82 PPG from 72 outings (14W 17D 41L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Crewe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 1.19 PPG, Crewe on 0.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Crawley Town's home form reads 14W 6D 14L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Crewe have taken 0.59 points per game from 34 outings (4W 8D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Crawley Town are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Crewe are on 0.79 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 72 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Crewe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Crewe in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 23W 17D 32L in their last 72 games (1.19 PPG), while Crewe have gone 14W 17D 41L in their last 72 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Crewe away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.41 PPG; Crewe away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crawley Town and Crewe runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Crewe have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Crawley Town's record when hosting Crewe specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Crawley Town
1
Draws
5
Crewe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Crewe?
From 7 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 1, Crewe have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Crewe last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Crawley Town 0-1 Crewe.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Crewe?
Crewe have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 59%, Crewe 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Crawley Town) and 41% (Crewe).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town have failed to score in 26% of games; Crewe in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Crewe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Crewe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 47% of Crewe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Crewe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Crawley Town's recent games and 41% of Crewe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Crewe tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Crewe in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crawley Town and Crewe share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town and Crewe finished level at 2-2 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.44 xG and Crewe 0.83 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Crewe outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.09 / defence 1.16 against Crewe attack 0.68 / defence 1.09, drawn from 72/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 52% | Draw 27% | Crewe 22%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 56%, Crewe 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (72 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Crewe's trading profile (72 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.19 PPG, Crewe 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Crewe (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.