AFC Wimbledon 0-0 Carlisle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carlisle at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Wimbledon vs Carlisle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AFC Wimbledon and Carlisle meet at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 February 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
AFC Wimbledon's overall League Two record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
AFC Wimbledon's home record at The Cherry Red Records Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 League Two appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Carlisle have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Carlisle's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for AFC Wimbledon against 1.90 for Carlisle. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — AFC Wimbledon lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Carlisle winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
AFC Wimbledon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Carlisle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 53% versus Carlisle 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 42% | Carlisle 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.02 xG and Carlisle 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.852 / defence 0.886 | Carlisle attack 1.247 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.213 / away 1.048. Carlisle have an above-average attack strength of 1.247 — the away xG of 1.16 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 28 AFC Wimbledon games / 75 Carlisle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 32% | Draw 29% | Carlisle 39%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Carlisle 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Carlisle at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Carlisle if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: AFC Wimbledon 40% | Carlisle 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Carlisle | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 32% | Draw 29% | Carlisle 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG AFC Wimbledon 1.02 / Carlisle 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.852 / def 0.886 | Carlisle attack 1.247 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.213 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: Carlisle (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Carlisle xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Carlisle kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Carlisle kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Carlisle?
AFC Wimbledon 0 - 0 Carlisle.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Carlisle being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Carlisle part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Carlisle is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Carlisle?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 32% chance of winning, Carlisle a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Carlisle the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Carlisle?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Carlisle will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Carlisle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Carlisle?
Record (1 meetings): AFC Wimbledon 0W | Draws 0 | Carlisle 1W.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Carlisle in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Carlisle (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AFC Wimbledon's attack at 0.85x the league average against Carlisle's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Carlisle's attack (1.25x) against AFC Wimbledon's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 28/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carlisle Win
32%
3.14
29%
3.42
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.17
1.16
Carlisle xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
10%
10.01
14%
7.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Carlisle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Carlisle expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.16 for Carlisle, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Carlisle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AFC Wimbledon's recent record stands at 16W 28D 30L from 74 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Carlisle, meanwhile, have gone 28W 19D 27L across 74 games — 1.39 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for AFC Wimbledon against 1.39 for Carlisle. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AFC Wimbledon have managed 8W 18D 10L from 36 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Carlisle's away record stands at 11W 8D 17L across 36 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Carlisle are on 1.18 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 74 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
Carlisle
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Carlisle in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 16W 28D 30L in their last 74 games (1.03 PPG), while Carlisle have gone 28W 19D 27L in their last 74 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Carlisle away?
AFC Wimbledon's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.17 PPG; Carlisle away: 1.14 PPG.
Have AFC Wimbledon or Carlisle been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Carlisle in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
AFC Wimbledon have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AFC Wimbledon won 4-0 on 12 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AFC Wimbledon have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Carlisle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
AFC Wimbledon
1
Draws
1
Carlisle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Carlisle?
From 4 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 2, Carlisle have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Carlisle last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Carlisle 1-2 AFC Wimbledon.
Who has won more matches between AFC Wimbledon and Carlisle?
AFC Wimbledon have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 56%, Carlisle 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (AFC Wimbledon) and 61% (Carlisle).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon have failed to score in 33% of games; Carlisle in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Carlisle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Carlisle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 50% of Carlisle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Carlisle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 61% of Carlisle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Carlisle tend to score early?
AFC Wimbledon have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Carlisle in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at AFC Wimbledon's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 31, as AFC Wimbledon and Carlisle drew 0-0 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.02 xG and Carlisle 1.16 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. AFC Wimbledon fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Carlisle landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 0.85 / defence 0.89 against Carlisle attack 1.25 / defence 0.98, drawn from 28/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 32% | Draw 29% | Carlisle 39%, with Carlisle to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 42%, Carlisle 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Carlisle's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 1.03 PPG, Carlisle 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Carlisle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.