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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Crewe defy the odds to beat Crawley Town 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crewe beat Crawley Town 0-1 at The Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.33 xG and Crewe 1.23 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Crawley Town fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.04 / defence 1.13 against Crewe attack 0.91 / defence 1.00, drawn from 29/76 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 39% | Draw 27% | Crewe 34%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Crewe win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 56%, Crewe 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crawley Town's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Crewe's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Crewe arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Crewe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights