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Crawley Town cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cheltenham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crawley Town beat Cheltenham 2-0 at The Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.12 xG and Cheltenham 1.17 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Crawley Town beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cheltenham landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.72 / defence 1.26 against Cheltenham attack 0.80 / defence 1.33, drawn from 7/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 34% | Draw 28% | Cheltenham 37%, with Cheltenham to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Crawley Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 55%, Cheltenham 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crawley Town's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Cheltenham's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crawley Town 0.96 PPG, Cheltenham 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Cheltenham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights