🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Cheltenham at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Cheltenham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Cheltenham make the trip to The Broadfield Stadium to face Crawley Town in League Two, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 September 2025 at 12:30 UTC.

Form

Crawley Town (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Crawley Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Crawley Town at The Broadfield Stadium this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Cheltenham have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Cheltenham have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, Cheltenham have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Crawley Town, 1.00 for Cheltenham — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Trading

Crawley Town half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Cheltenham half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 51% versus Cheltenham 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 55% | Cheltenham 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.12 xG and Cheltenham 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.722 / defence 1.262 | Cheltenham attack 0.798 / defence 1.327. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.164. Crawley Town's attack strength of 0.722 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cheltenham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.327 — this is suppressing Crawley Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Crawley Town games / 53 Cheltenham games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Crawley Town 34% | Draw 28% | Cheltenham 37%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Cheltenham 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Cheltenham at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cheltenham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Crawley Town 60% | Cheltenham 50%.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights