Crawley Town vs Accrington ST – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Accrington ST at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Accrington ST fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Accrington ST make the trip to The Broadfield Stadium to face Crawley Town in League Two, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 February 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Crawley Town have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Crawley Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Crawley Town's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 games at The Broadfield Stadium this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Accrington ST's overall League Two record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Accrington ST have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Accrington ST's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Crawley Town against 0.80 for Accrington ST. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Crawley Town, 1 for Accrington ST and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2026, ended 2–3 with Accrington ST winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Crawley Town — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Accrington ST — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 47% versus Accrington ST 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 43% | Accrington ST 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.20 xG and Accrington ST 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.690 / defence 1.284 | Accrington ST attack 0.996 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.008. Crawley Town's attack strength of 0.690 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Accrington ST bring a strong defensive rating of 1.231 — this is suppressing Crawley Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Crawley Town games / 53 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 32% | Draw 32% | Accrington ST 36%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Accrington ST 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Accrington ST are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Accrington ST if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Crawley Town 40% | Accrington ST 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Accrington ST | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: The Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 32% | Draw 32% | Accrington ST 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Crawley Town 1.20 / Accrington ST 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.690 / def 1.284 | Accrington ST attack 0.996 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Accrington ST xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Accrington ST kick off?
Crawley Town vs Accrington ST is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at The Broadfield Stadium.
Where is Crawley Town vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at The Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Accrington ST part of?
Crawley Town vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 32% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Crawley Town and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Accrington ST?
Record (5 meetings): Crawley Town 2W | Draws 2 | Accrington ST 1W.
What form are Crawley Town and Accrington ST in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Accrington ST (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 0.69x the league average against Accrington ST's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Accrington ST's attack (1.00x) against Crawley Town's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
32%
3.12
32%
3.13
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.49
1.29
Accrington ST xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
9%
11.31
11%
9.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.7 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.29 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Accrington ST?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Crawley Town come into this having played 53 games, going 9W 17D 27L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Crawley Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Accrington ST sit at 1.11 PPG from 53 outings (15W 14D 24L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Accrington ST, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.83 PPG for Crawley Town against 1.11 for Accrington ST. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Crawley Town's home form reads 5W 10D 11L across 26 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Accrington ST have taken 0.81 points per game from 26 outings (5W 6D 15L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crawley Town are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.08 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 53 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Early Season
Accrington ST
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 9W 17D 27L in their last 53 games (0.83 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 15W 14D 24L in their last 53 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Accrington ST away?
Crawley Town's home record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 0.96 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crawley Town have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Accrington ST — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Crawley Town
2
Draws
1
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Accrington ST?
From 5 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 2, Accrington ST have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Accrington ST 3-2 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Accrington ST?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Crawley Town see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 54%, Accrington ST 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Crawley Town) and 42% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town have failed to score in 31% of games; Accrington ST in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Accrington ST?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 42% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Crawley Town's recent games and 42% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.