Crawley Town vs Accrington ST – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Accrington ST at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Accrington ST encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Accrington ST make the trip to The Broadfield Stadium to face Crawley Town in League Two, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 February 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Crawley Town have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at The Broadfield Stadium this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Accrington ST's overall League Two record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Accrington ST's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Accrington ST are 1.10 PPG clear of Crawley Town in recent League Two fixtures (1.70 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Crawley Town, 1 for Accrington ST and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2026, ended 2–3 with Accrington ST winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Crawley Town — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Accrington ST — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 50% versus Accrington ST 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 45% | Accrington ST 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.00 xG and Accrington ST 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.805 / defence 1.358 | Accrington ST attack 1.132 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.143. Data: 58 Crawley Town games / 60 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 20% | Draw 27% | Accrington ST 54%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 5.00 | Draw 3.70 | Accrington ST 1.85. Accrington ST hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Accrington ST are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Accrington ST if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Crawley Town 40% | Accrington ST 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Accrington ST | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: The Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 20% | Draw 27% | Accrington ST 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Crawley Town 1.00 / Accrington ST 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.805 / def 1.358 | Accrington ST attack 1.132 / def 0.856 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Accrington ST xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Accrington ST kick off?
Crawley Town vs Accrington ST is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at The Broadfield Stadium.
Where is Crawley Town vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at The Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Accrington ST part of?
Crawley Town vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 20% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 54% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Crawley Town and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Accrington ST?
Record (5 meetings): Crawley Town 2W | Draws 2 | Accrington ST 1W.
What form are Crawley Town and Accrington ST in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Accrington ST (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 0.81x the league average against Accrington ST's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Accrington ST's attack (1.13x) against Crawley Town's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from 58/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
20%
5.05
27%
3.76
54%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.76
1.76
Accrington ST xG
5.05
20%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
1.87
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
17%
5.80
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
3%
29.28
20%
5.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.76 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Accrington ST?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Crawley Town come into this having played 58 games, going 10W 19D 29L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Accrington ST sit at 1.22 PPG from 58 outings (18W 17D 23L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.84 PPG for Crawley Town against 1.22 for Accrington ST. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Crawley Town's home form reads 5W 12D 12L across 29 games on their own ground, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Accrington ST have taken 0.93 points per game from 29 outings (6W 9D 14L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crawley Town are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.19 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 58 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Accrington ST
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 10W 19D 29L in their last 58 games (0.84 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 18W 17D 23L in their last 58 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Accrington ST away?
Crawley Town's home record (0.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 0.93 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crawley Town have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Accrington ST — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Crawley Town
2
Draws
1
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Accrington ST?
From 5 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 2, Accrington ST have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Accrington ST 3-2 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Accrington ST?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Crawley Town see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 59%, Accrington ST 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Crawley Town) and 41% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town have failed to score in 28% of games; Accrington ST in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Accrington ST?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 45% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Crawley Town's recent games and 41% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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