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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Crawley Town and Accrington ST share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crawley Town and Accrington ST finished level at 1-1 at The Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.56 xG and Accrington ST 1.10 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.04 / defence 1.00 against Accrington ST attack 0.92 / defence 1.12, drawn from 16/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 48% | Draw 25% | Accrington ST 27%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 56%, Accrington ST 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crawley Town's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Accrington ST's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.00 PPG, Accrington ST 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights