Crawley Town 1-1 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Accrington ST fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Accrington ST make the trip to The Broadfield Stadium to face Crawley Town in League Two, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 November 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Crawley Town have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at The Broadfield Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Accrington ST's overall League Two record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Accrington ST's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Crawley Town against 1.40 for Accrington ST. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Crawley Town, 0 for Accrington ST and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 1–0 with Crawley Town winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Crawley Town — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Accrington ST — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 52% versus Accrington ST 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 56% | Accrington ST 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.56 xG and Accrington ST 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.038 / defence 1.000 | Accrington ST attack 0.922 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.189. Data: 16 Crawley Town games / 62 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 48% | Draw 25% | Accrington ST 27%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Accrington ST 3.70. Crawley Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crawley Town are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crawley Town if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 60% | Accrington ST 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Accrington ST | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: The Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 48% | Draw 25% | Accrington ST 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Crawley Town 1.56 / Accrington ST 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.038 / def 1.000 | Accrington ST attack 0.922 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Accrington ST xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Accrington ST kick off?
Crawley Town vs Accrington ST kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at The Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Accrington ST?
Crawley Town 1 - 1 Accrington ST.
Where is Crawley Town vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at The Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Accrington ST part of?
Crawley Town vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 48% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Crawley Town and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Accrington ST?
Record (2 meetings): Crawley Town 2W | Draws 0 | Accrington ST 0W.
What form are Crawley Town and Accrington ST in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Accrington ST (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 1.04x the league average against Accrington ST's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Accrington ST's attack (0.92x) against Crawley Town's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 16/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
48%
2.08
25%
3.96
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.65
1.10
Accrington ST xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
6%
17.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.10 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Accrington ST?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Crawley Town come into this having played 62 games, going 16W 14D 32L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-D. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Accrington ST sit at 1.08 PPG from 62 outings (16W 19D 27L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Crawley Town against 1.08 for Accrington ST. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Crawley Town's home form reads 10W 8D 13L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Accrington ST have taken 0.94 points per game from 31 outings (8W 5D 18L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crawley Town are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.16 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 62 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Accrington ST
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 16W 14D 32L in their last 62 games (1.00 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 16W 19D 27L in their last 62 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Accrington ST away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.23 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crawley Town have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Accrington ST — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Crawley Town
2
Draws
0
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Accrington ST?
From 4 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 2, Accrington ST have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Accrington ST 3-3 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Accrington ST?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 58%, Accrington ST 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Crawley Town) and 55% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Accrington ST in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Accrington ST?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 52% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Crawley Town's recent games and 55% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crawley Town and Accrington ST share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town and Accrington ST finished level at 1-1 at The Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.56 xG and Accrington ST 1.10 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.04 / defence 1.00 against Accrington ST attack 0.92 / defence 1.12, drawn from 16/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 48% | Draw 25% | Accrington ST 27%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 56%, Accrington ST 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Accrington ST's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.00 PPG, Accrington ST 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.