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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Colchester edge out Port Vale 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colchester beat Port Vale 2-1 at JobServe Community Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 1.26 xG and Port Vale 0.87 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 0.95 / defence 0.83 against Port Vale attack 0.99 / defence 1.04, drawn from 81/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Colchester 45% | Draw 29% | Port Vale 26%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 41%, Port Vale 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Colchester's trading profile (80 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Port Vale's trading profile (80 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Colchester 1.21 PPG, Port Vale 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Colchester win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights