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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Colchester edge out Notts County 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colchester beat Notts County 1-0 at JobServe Community Stadium, Regular Season - 41, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 1.30 xG and Notts County 1.16 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Notts County landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 1.05 / defence 0.83 against Notts County attack 1.30 / defence 0.96, drawn from 86/86 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Colchester 40% | Draw 27% | Notts County 33%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 44%, Notts County 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Colchester's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Notts County's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Colchester 1.21 PPG, Notts County 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Colchester win broke the near-deadlock. Colchester (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Notts County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights