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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Colchester run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Newport County.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colchester beat Newport County 4-1 at Colchester Community Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 1.59 xG and Newport County 1.00 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Colchester beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 1.01 / defence 0.89 against Newport County attack 0.90 / defence 1.18, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Colchester 50% | Draw 27% | Newport County 23%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 35%, Newport County 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Colchester's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Newport County's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Colchester arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Colchester (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm. Newport County (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights