🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Colchester's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at JobServe Community Stadium, Regular Season - 43, as Colchester and Crewe drew 0-0 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 1.08 xG and Crewe 0.69 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Colchester fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 1.00 / defence 0.76 against Crewe attack 0.81 / defence 0.81, drawn from 88/88 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Colchester 44% | Draw 33% | Crewe 23%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 43%, Crewe 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Colchester's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Crewe's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Colchester 1.25 PPG, Crewe 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Colchester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Crewe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights