Colchester 0-0 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Colchester at 69% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Colchester face Crawley Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Colchester welcome Crawley Town to Colchester Community Stadium in League Two (matchday 37). Kick-off is Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Colchester — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Colchester at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Colchester are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Crawley Town have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Crawley Town's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Colchester) versus 1.00 (Crawley Town). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Colchester's 30% BTTS rate and Crawley Town's 30% (from Colchester's last 10 home games and Crawley Town's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Colchester, 3 for Crawley Town and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Dec 2025, ended Colchester 1–1 Crawley Town — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Colchester in-play and half-time data (last 81 games, 40 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (last 81 games, 40 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colchester 49% versus Crawley Town 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colchester 35% | Crawley Town 53%). Note also that Crawley Town surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Colchester recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colchester 1.85 xG and Crawley Town 0.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colchester attack 1.175 / defence 0.814 | Crawley Town attack 0.573 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.192. Crawley Town's defence rating of 1.259 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Colchester's projected output up. Crawley Town's attack rating of 0.573 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.56. Data: built from Colchester's last 81 games and Crawley Town's last 36.
Result probabilities: Colchester 69% | Draw 21% | Crawley Town 10%. Fair-value odds: Colchester 1.46 | Draw 4.77 | Crawley Town 9.63. The model has a clear lean to Colchester (69%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Colchester at 69% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Colchester 30% (last 10 home games) | Crawley Town 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colchester vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, matchday 37 | Venue: Colchester Community Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colchester 69% | Draw 21% | Crawley Town 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Colchester 1.85 / Crawley Town 0.56 • Poisson strength factors: Colchester attack 1.175 / def 0.814 | Crawley Town attack 0.573 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Colchester (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Colchester xG
Expected Goals
0.56
Crawley Town xG
36%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Colchester vs Crawley Town FAQs
What time does Colchester vs Crawley Town kick off?
Colchester vs Crawley Town kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 13 March 2026 at Colchester Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Colchester vs Crawley Town?
Colchester 0 - 0 Crawley Town.
Where is Colchester vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Colchester Community Stadium.
What competition is Colchester vs Crawley Town part of?
Colchester vs Crawley Town is a League Two fixture (matchday 37) (England).
Who is favourite to win Colchester vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Colchester a 69% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 10% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Colchester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colchester vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Colchester and Crawley Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Colchester vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Colchester's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Crawley Town's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Colchester's defence, projects 0.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Colchester's last 81 games and Crawley Town's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colchester Win
69%
1.46
21%
4.77
10%
9.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.4%
Home win
3 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Colchester xG
Total xG
2.41
0.56
Crawley Town xG
1.46
69%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
9.63
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
57%
1.74
16%
6.37
Win to Nil
39%
2.54
2%
61.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 9.3 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.4 | 8.6 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Colchester vs Crawley Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Colchester vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Colchester and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Colchester and 0.56 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Colchester vs Crawley Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Colchester's recent record stands at 30W 29D 22L from 81 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Crawley Town, meanwhile, have gone 17W 21D 43L across 81 games — 0.89 PPG, with L-D-D-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Colchester by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Crawley Town heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Colchester have managed 18W 12D 10L from their last 40 home games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crawley Town's away record stands at 6W 8D 26L across their last 40 away games, a 0.65 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Colchester come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Colchester are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.11 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Defensively: Colchester have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 81 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colchester
Current Season
Crawley Town
Current Season
Colchester (Home) vs Crawley Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Colchester
Current Season
Crawley Town
Current Season
❓ Colchester vs Crawley Town Form FAQs
What form are Colchester and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Colchester have gone 30W 29D 22L in their last 81 games (1.47 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 17W 21D 43L in their last 81 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colchester at home or Crawley Town away?
Colchester's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colchester at home: 1.65 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Colchester or Crawley Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Colchester have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Crawley Town in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 13 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Colchester's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Colchester
4
Draws
3
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Colchester vs Crawley Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and Crawley Town?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Colchester have won 1, Crawley Town have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Colchester and Crawley Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 March 2026: Colchester 0-0 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Colchester and Crawley Town?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Colchester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 58% of those situations.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colchester 45%, Crawley Town 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Colchester) and 60% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Colchester keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Colchester have failed to score in 28% of games; Crawley Town in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colchester home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Colchester vs Crawley Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Colchester and Crawley Town matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Colchester's recent matches and 42% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Colchester and Crawley Town matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Colchester's recent games and 60% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Colchester and Crawley Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Colchester's recent matches and 70% of Crawley Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Colchester's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Colchester Community Stadium, Regular Season - 37, as Colchester and Crawley Town drew 0-0 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 1.85 xG and Crawley Town 0.56 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Colchester fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 1.18 / defence 0.81 against Crawley Town attack 0.57 / defence 1.26, drawn from 81/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colchester 69% | Draw 21% | Crawley Town 10%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 35%, Crawley Town 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colchester's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Crawley Town's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Colchester arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Colchester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.02 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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