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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Colchester run riot with a 6-2 hammering of Chesterfield.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colchester beat Chesterfield 6-2 at Colchester Community Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 1.14 xG and Chesterfield 1.27 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 6-2 for 8 actual goals. Colchester beat their projection by 4.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 0.82 / defence 1.02 against Chesterfield attack 1.08 / defence 1.06, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Colchester 33% | Draw 27% | Chesterfield 40%, with Chesterfield to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Colchester win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 32%, Chesterfield 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Colchester's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Chesterfield's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Colchester 1.34 PPG, Chesterfield 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Colchester win broke the near-deadlock. Colchester (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chesterfield (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights