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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Colchester edge out Accrington ST 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colchester beat Accrington ST 2-1 at Colchester Community Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 1.38 xG and Accrington ST 0.72 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 1.14 / defence 0.85 against Accrington ST attack 0.71 / defence 0.97, drawn from 88/88 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Colchester 53% | Draw 28% | Accrington ST 19%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 34%, Accrington ST 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Colchester's trading profile (88 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Accrington ST's trading profile (88 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Colchester 1.44 PPG, Accrington ST 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Colchester win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights