Colchester 1-1 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Colchester at 41%, yet in-form Accrington ST provide a compelling counter-argument — this Colchester vs Accrington ST fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Accrington ST travel to JobServe Community Stadium to take on Colchester in League Two (matchday 34). The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Colchester have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Colchester have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Accrington ST — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Accrington ST have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Accrington ST are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Colchester's last 10 home games and Accrington ST's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Colchester have won 1, Accrington ST 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Colchester 1–0 Accrington ST — a Colchester win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Colchester trading profile (last 77 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Accrington ST trading profile (last 77 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colchester 53% versus Accrington ST 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colchester 44% | Accrington ST 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colchester 1.66 xG and Accrington ST 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colchester attack 0.994 / defence 1.266 | Accrington ST attack 0.885 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.356. Colchester's defence rating of 1.266 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Accrington ST's projected output up. Data: built from Colchester's last 77 games and Accrington ST's last 31.
Result probabilities: Colchester 41% | Draw 24% | Accrington ST 35%. Fair-value odds: Colchester 2.45 | Draw 4.12 | Accrington ST 2.87. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.66 / 1.52) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Colchester are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Accrington ST (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Colchester offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Colchester's last 10 home games and Accrington ST's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Colchester 90% (last 10 home games) | Accrington ST 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colchester vs Accrington ST | Competition: League Two, matchday 34 | Venue: JobServe Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colchester 41% | Draw 24% | Accrington ST 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Colchester 1.66 / Accrington ST 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Colchester attack 0.994 / def 1.266 | Accrington ST attack 0.885 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Colchester (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Colchester xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Accrington ST xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Colchester vs Accrington ST FAQs
What time does Colchester vs Accrington ST kick off?
Colchester vs Accrington ST kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 17 February 2024 at JobServe Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Colchester vs Accrington ST?
Colchester 1 - 1 Accrington ST.
Where is Colchester vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at JobServe Community Stadium.
What competition is Colchester vs Accrington ST part of?
Colchester vs Accrington ST is a League Two fixture (matchday 34) (England).
Who is favourite to win Colchester vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Colchester a 41% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Colchester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colchester vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Colchester and Accrington ST will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Colchester vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Colchester's attack at 0.99x the league average against Accrington ST's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Accrington ST's attack versus Colchester's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Colchester's last 77 games and Accrington ST's last 31 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Colchester Win
41%
2.45
24%
4.12
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Colchester xG
Total xG
3.18
1.52
Accrington ST xG
2.45
41%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
9%
11.20
7%
15.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.5 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Colchester vs Accrington ST Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Colchester vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Colchester and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Colchester and 1.52 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Colchester vs Accrington ST?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Colchester come into this having played 77 games, going 20W 18D 39L for 1.01 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, Accrington ST sit at 1.16 PPG from 77 outings (24W 17D 36L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Colchester on 1.01 PPG, Accrington ST on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Colchester's home form reads 10W 12D 15L across their last 37 home games, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Accrington ST have taken 0.97 points per game from their last 37 away games (9W 9D 19L).
Goals in Recent Form
Colchester are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.10 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 77 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colchester
Current Season
Accrington ST
Current Season
Colchester (Home) vs Accrington ST (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Colchester
Current Season
Accrington ST
Current Season
❓ Colchester vs Accrington ST Form FAQs
What form are Colchester and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Colchester have gone 20W 18D 39L in their last 77 games (1.01 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 24W 17D 36L in their last 77 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colchester at home or Accrington ST away?
Colchester's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colchester at home: 1.14 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2023. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Colchester's record when hosting Accrington ST specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Colchester
3
Draws
2
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Colchester vs Accrington ST H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and Accrington ST?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Colchester have won 2, Accrington ST have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Colchester and Accrington ST last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Accrington ST 2-2 Colchester.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Colchester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colchester 60%, Accrington ST 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Colchester) and 46% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Colchester have failed to score in 27% of games; Accrington ST in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colchester home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Colchester vs Accrington ST Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Colchester and Accrington ST matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Colchester's recent matches and 46% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Colchester and Accrington ST matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Colchester's recent games and 46% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Colchester and Accrington ST matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Colchester's recent matches and 65% of Accrington ST's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Colchester and Accrington ST share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colchester and Accrington ST finished level at 1-1 at JobServe Community Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 1.66 xG and Accrington ST 1.52 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 0.99 / defence 1.27 against Accrington ST attack 0.89 / defence 1.12, drawn from 77/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colchester 41% | Draw 24% | Accrington ST 35%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 44%, Accrington ST 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colchester's trading profile (77 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Accrington ST's trading profile (77 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Colchester 1.01 PPG, Accrington ST 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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